![]() ![]() As Obama chief of staff, Dennis McDonough, notes, “newness is a good thing” and presents an opportunity to bring in “new legs.” New hires can help reinvigorate the administration and help the president realign his staff with his policy priorities. ![]() ![]() However, if the transition is handled effectively and with foresight, staff turnover can become an opportunity for the incumbent to breathe new life into the administration. The loss of Cabinet secretaries and top-level leadership can weaken the president’s ability to pursue his or her agenda. According to a report from the Center for Presidential Transition, from 1981 onward, 43% of key staff has departed within six months of the Election Day when presidents win a second term. Historically, presidential administrations have experienced extremely high turnover rates in personnel and the Cabinet early in their second terms. Characteristics of the fifth year Personnel Re-elected presidents have the opportunity to avoid pitfalls that have hurt previous administrations and begin their second terms in a stronger position. Bush’s chief of staff during his second term, notes that “every two-term presidency has had the same problem, which is the president doesn’t think of it as a transition.” īy examining the personnel, policy priorities, and processes of past administrations, this article looks to the lessons of history for a potential roadmap for effective presidential fifth years. The shift between a first and second term is more effectively viewed through the lens of a transition, rather than simply a continuation. However, as history shows, many times this is not the case. Ideally, a president entering their fifth year has an experienced staff, clearly articulated policy priorities, and the momentum to seamlessly transition to a second term. Bushįrom FDR to President Obama, the history of the modern presidential second-term transitions does offer a wealth of examples of successful strategies, but also a great number of oversights. Josh Bolton, chief of staff, President George W. Surprisingly, that has been less often the reality.Įvery two-term presidency has had the same problem, which is the president doesn’t think of it as a transition. By this time in a president’s tenure, one would think that policy priorities would be well defined, a definitive process for enacting a policy agenda would be in place, and the West Wing would be staffed with seasoned professionals adept at pulling the right levers of the federal government. Neither of these strategies does a particularly good job of setting the stage for a good transition to a second term. If this strategy proves to be politically nonviable, incumbents will run as the more palatable option to their opponent-suggesting that the other candidate would be worse. ![]() Presidents running for reelection rely on a campaign strategy that highlights the successes of their first term-promising more of the same. While the president’s fifth year should be a symbolic and substantive fresh start, it is often marred by political infighting, major crises, and failed legislative agendas.Ī fifth-year president, no longer encumbered by the worries of reelection, should be well positioned to take decisive action. However, the transition between a president’s first and second term has historically been both under-explored, undervalued, and often presents many challenges. Because of the legacy of peaceful transfers of power, the presidential transition process is an important one, and a lot of attention goes into planning for first-term transitions. The American democratic system invented and relies on the peaceful transition of power between presidencies, especially those of different parties. ![]()
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